Incidence and Predictors of Liver-Related Events in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Abstract

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the commonest type of liver disease worldwide. We aimed to assess the incidence and predictors of liver-related events (LREs) and mortality in NAFLD patients. NAFLD patients (n= 957) evaluated between January2000 and November2021 were included. Patients were categorised as noncirrhosis (NC), compensated cirrhosis (CC) and decompensated cirrhosis (DC), and the incidence of LRE and mortality were estimated and compared. The proportions of NC, CCand DC were 87.8% (n= 840), 8.8% (n= 84) and 3.4% (n= 33), respectively. The median follow-up duration was 3.9 (3.0-5.7) years, and the total cumulative duration was 4633 person-years. The incidence of LRE per 100 person-years was 0.14, 2.72 and 10.24 in patients with NC, CCand DC, respectively. The incidence of mortality was 0.12, 1.05 and 4.24 per 100 person-years, respectively, in the 3 groups. The causes of mortality in the 3 groups were liver related in 1/5 (20%), 3/4 (75%) and 6/9 (66.7%), respectively. Overall, the mortality rate was higher in those with diabetes than those without diabetes (log-rank P value=0.005). On further analysis, diabetes was associated with poor outcomes only in NC group (log-rank P value=0.036), and not in CC (log-rank P value=0.353) or DC groups (log-rank P value=0.771). On multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis, age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.070), hypertension (HR 4.361) and DC (HR 15.036) were independent predictors of poor outcomes. Liver stiffness measurement, bilirubin, CC and DC were independent predictors of LRE. In our study of NAFLD from India, the incidence of LRE was found to be similar to that seen in Western studies. In NC NAFLD, diabetes was associated with poor outcomes.