Incidence and length of outbreak period of COVID-19 and population density in comparison with seasonal influenza in Japan

Abstract

ObjectivesThere is no consensus regarding the impact of population density on the transmission of respiratory viral infections such as COVID-19 and seasonal influenza. Our study aimed to determine the correlation between population density and the incidence and duration of COVID-19 transmission. MethodsPublicly available data for confirmed COVID-19 cases in Japan, from January 2020 through November 2021, were retrospectively collected. The average numbers of seasonal influenza cases reported in the national database from 2013–2014 through 2019–2020 were identified. Using data for COVID-19 and seasonal influenza population density and incidence rates (age-adjusted), the Pearson's correlation coefficient was determined. ResultsA significant positive correlation between log population density and length of outbreak period was observed for COVID-19 (r = 0.734; p < 0.001) but not for seasonal influenza. Additionally, a significant linear correlation was observed between population density and age-adjusted incidence rate for COVID-19 (r = 0.692; p < 0.001) but not for seasonal influenza. ConclusionsIn Japan, areas with high population density experienced a prolonged and more intense COVID-19 outbreak compared with areas with low population density. This was not observed with seasonal influenza, suggesting that public health measures against COVID-19 should be tailored according to population density.