Incidence and 30-day mortality of peptic ulcer bleeding in Korea

Abstract

To estimate the rates of peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB) incidence and the association of demographic factors with 30-day mortality after PUB. Diagnostic algorithms for PUB were derived and validated on the basis of 115 true PUB patients at one tertiary hospital in 2005, followed by estimation of age-specific PUB incidence and 30-day mortality rates, using the Korean National Health Insurance claim database. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine the impact of demographic factors on the 30-day mortality rate ratio (MRR) after PUB. The diagnostic algorithm showed 89 and 88% positive predictive value and sensitivity, respectively. On the basis of this algorithm, the rate of PUB incidence was 22.1 per 100 000 during 2006-2007 and the age-specific incidence rate increased with advanced age. This incidence rate was more than three times higher among men than women. Among 21 107 PUB patients, the overall 30-day mortality rate was 2.15%, but it ranged from 0.83% for patients younger than 60 years to 7.65% for patients older than 80 years. The adjusted 30-day mortality rate ratio for patients older than 80 was 8.13 (95% confidence interval 6.10-10.8) compared with those younger than 60 and 7.09 (95% confidence interval 2.78-4.51) for patients with a high level of comorbidity compared with a low level of comorbidity. PUB incidence was higher among men and increased with advanced age. Increased 30-day mortality was observed in association with increasing age, after adjusting for comorbidity.