Abstract
Increasing land demand has resulted land conversion, one of which is forest land conversion. The objectives of this research are to identify: the conversion patterns of forest land use, the classification of land capability, the spatial direction of agroforestry programsand the land conversion in 2025. This research implements map overlay, land capability analysis, and CA-Markov method. The results show that the pattern the conversion in 1990-2015is dynamic, the biggest change was from 1996 to 2003 covering the area of 24,487 hectares. There are five classesof Land capability: classes II, III, IV, VI, and VII with erosion as the biggest limiting factor (e4) dominant inclasses IV and VI. Management suggestions consist of 11,361 hectares of agroforestry patterns, 11,228 hectaresof reforestation, 3,013 hectares of Tanah Obyek Reformasi Agraria, 102,928 hectares of other management inaccordance with Rencana Karya Usaha Pemanfaatan Hasil Hutan Kayu and Rencana Pengelolaan Hutan JangkaPanjang. Prediction of land use change in 2025 with bussiness as ussual scenario shows 3.6% reduction of HutanSekunder with RPHJP implementation scenario, 0.5% HS is reduced; with the strategy of agroforestry scenarioshows 105.3% HS increase.
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