Abstract

BackgroundCalculation of individual risk is the cornerstone of effective cardiovascular prevention. arriba is a software to estimate the individual risk to suffer a cardiovascular event in 10 years. Prognosis and the absolute effects of pharmacological and lifestyle interventions help the patient make a well-informed decision. The risk calculation algorithm currently used in arriba is based on the Framingham risk algorithm calibrated to the German setting. The objective of this study is to evaluate and adapt the algorithm for the target population in primary care in Germany.Methods/designarriba-pro will be conducted within the primary care scheme provided by a large health care insurer in Baden-Württemberg, Germany. Patients who are counseled with arriba by their general practitioners (GPs) will be included in the arriba-pro cohort. Exposure data from the consultation with arriba such as demographic data and risk factors will be recorded automatically by the practice software and transferred to the study centre. Information on relevant prescription drugs (effect modifiers) and cardiovascular events (outcomes) will be derived from administrative sources.DiscussionThe study is unique in simulating a therapy naïve cohort, matching exactly research and application setting, using a robust administrative data base, and, finally, including patients with known cardiovascular disease who have been excluded from previous studies.Trial registrationThe study is registered with Deutsches Register Klinischer Studien (DRKS00004633).

Highlights

  • Calculation of individual risk is the cornerstone of effective cardiovascular prevention. arriba is a software to estimate the individual risk to suffer a cardiovascular event in 10 years

  • The study is unique in simulating a therapy naïve cohort, matching exactly research and application setting, using a robust administrative data base, and, including patients with known cardiovascular disease who have been excluded from previous studies

  • The focus has shifted from the diagnosis and treatment of single risk factors to a view focusing on global cardiovascular risk

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Summary

Introduction

Calculation of individual risk is the cornerstone of effective cardiovascular prevention. arriba is a software to estimate the individual risk to suffer a cardiovascular event in 10 years. Calculation of individual risk is the cornerstone of effective cardiovascular prevention. Arriba is a software to estimate the individual risk to suffer a cardiovascular event in 10 years. The risk calculation algorithm currently used in arriba is based on the Framingham risk algorithm calibrated to the German setting. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in industrialized and, increasingly, in developing countries [1]. In 2008, 17.1 million deaths worldwide were caused by cardiovascular disease, which amounts to 30% of all deaths [2]. For Germany, the respective numbers are 342,000 cardiovascular deaths per year (40% of all deaths) [3]. The prevention of cardiovascular diseases is an area with high priority. Within a high-risk prevention paradigm, persons with elevated cardiovascular risk are identified and treated [4]. On the basis of multivariate algorithms clinicians can calculate an individual’s

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