In utero and childhood exposure to alcohol and old age mortality: Evidence from the temperance movement in the US

Abstract

Previous research suggests the relevance of in-utero insults and early-life circumstances for a wide array of life cycle outcomes. This research note joins this strand of studies by exploring the long-run mortality effects of in-utero and early-life exposure to alcohol accessibility. In so doing, we take advantage of the prohibition movement during the early part of the twentieth century that generated quasi-natural reductions in alcohol consumption. We use Social Security Administration Death Master Files linked to the full-count 1940 census and compare the longevity of male individuals exposed to the prohibition during in-utero and early childhood (1900–1930) as a result of statewide and federal alcohol ban to those wet counties after the law change to before. The results suggest an intent-to-treat effect of 0.17 years higher longevity as a result of prohibition. A back-of-an-envelope calculation suggests a minimum treatment-on-treated effect of 1.7 years impact. Furthermore, we show that these effects are not driven by other county-level demographic and socioeconomic changes, endogenous selection of births, and preexisting trends in the outcome. Our findings contribute to the growing body of research that explores the in-utero and childhood circumstances on long-term health outcomes.