In the Shadow of the Gun

Abstract

Despite over fifteen years of ‘peace process,’ political violence in Northern Ireland has continued and a situation characterised as ‘not-war-not peace’ has prevailed. In the euphoria surrounding the establishment of the ‘power-sharing government’ in 2007, the media reported this event as representing the end of the ‘troubles’ or conflict. However, significant political violence has continued throughout the peace process and the heavily armed Loyalist paramilitaries, unlike the IRA, have not begun to disarm and have no intention to do so, despite this being a fundamental requirement of the peace process. They are reserving the option and are fully prepared to return to violence in response to any movement towards a united Ireland, and this ‘threat’ is growing because Catholic-nationalists will become a voting majority in the province over the next decade or so. This paper argues that there is no peace in Northern Ireland now, that the peace process has not been successfully completed, and that the prognosis for the future of the gun and political violence in Northern Ireland is not good. History and Protestant political culture strongly suggest that the most likely future scenario is a resurgence of Loyalist violence and a renewed paramilitary campaign, rather than a real and lasting peace.