In the shade of Locarno? Why European defence is failing

Abstract

European defence is failing because of the profusion and confusion of strategic concepts in Europe today. This article draws parallels with the Europe of the interwar years when strategic concepts were similarly confused. At the time a complex interplay between the traditional balance of power approach to security and the collective security, disarmament and international arbitration enshrined in the Treaty of Versailles resulted in strategic paralysis. The nadir of this failed strategic concept was the Treaty of Locarno in 1925 that, by endeavouring to keep all states happy at all times, simply prevented the creation of an effective security and defence mechanism. The rest is history. While the strategic environment of the first decade of the twenty–first century is undoubtedly different to that of the second decade of the twentieth, the need to satisfy the domestic political needs of all European powers, great and small, activist and post–neutral is producing a similar effect. Europe today has a security system that seems to bear little or no relation to the threats that are emerging. It is time, therefore, that Europe’s Great Powers, Britain, France and Germany reasserted their political authority and bring an end to the political correctness that has so undermined European defence. Given the time that such endeavours normally take, and the nature and scope of emerging threats, the time for such action is now. Europe’s Great Powers cannot again afford to be late and unprepared for the conflicts that lie ahead.