In the right place at the right time: representativeness of corals within marine protected areas under warming scenarios in Brazil

Abstract

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are important tools to promote reef conservation by reducing local impacts, potentially helping corals to thrive during global bleaching events. However, many of these areas do not account for climate change in their planning, which may reduce their ability to protect organisms, such as corals, whose distribution is likely to change due to ocean warming. To investigate if MPAs will comprise most coral species in future warming scenarios, we evaluated the current representativeness of 23 shallow water zooxanthellate scleractinian corals and hydrocorals within and outside MPAs in Brazil, particularly addressing differences between protection levels and among jurisdictions (municipal, state, and federal). We used gap analysis to investigate future changes in the representativeness of corals within MPAs under the most extreme warming scenario predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). We found that MPAs currently comprise all coral species, 20 within MPAs that allow sustainable use and 19 within strict protection MPAs, with a similar composition of coral assemblages between levels of protection and among jurisdictions. Areas with the highest coral occurrence probabilities in current and future warming projections are within MPAs, suggesting that, if well managed, these MPAs could be effective in reducing local threats and enhancing ecosystem resistance to warming scenarios. Under warming scenarios, subtropical regions will experience increases in coral occurrence probability and may become key areas for strengthening coral conservation in the future. Therefore, incorporating climate change in the design and management of MPAs is critical for reef conservation.