Abstract
Recent studies have found little empirical evidence to suggest that National Basketball Association (NBA) and Major League Baseball (MLB) players have hot streaks. This has led some to suggest that hot hands do not exist and that offensive and defensive strategies adjusting to perceived hot hands are suboptimal. We study the MLB's Home Run Derby and the NBA's 3-point Shootout. When there is no defense, extended time between shots has been removed, and shot or swing selection is constant, we find evidence that player performance is nonstationary. Our results are consistent with beliefs long held by players, coaches, and fans, research on the importance of self-efficacy in sports, and studies that support the existence of hot streaks in sports with no or limited defense.
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