(In)Sufficiency of industrial decarbonization to reduce household carbon footprints to 1.5°C-compatible levels

Abstract

Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5°C rely on a combination of interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and capture carbon dioxide. However, the extent to which lifestyle change contributes to mitigation relative to technological change over time remains understudied. Here, we present a scenario model that incorporates extensive supply-side technological transformations while excluding lifestyle changes. By adapting a global supply-use table from EXIOBASE using elements from Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1 and a mitigation pathway consistent with the 1.5°C target, we assess how household footprints evolve in 2030 and 2050 and the extent to which technological change alone can mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. We modeled footprints for 49 countries/regions, with a focus on the EU27. Our scenario results indicate that while technological change can substantially reduce emissions, the reductions are ultimately insufficient to achieve the 1.5°C target. Eight EXIOBASE regions, including three EU27 countries, are on a 1.5°C-consistent trajectory with just technological advancements in 2030. However, by 2050, no countries are projected to meet the 1.5°C-compatible target. The average EU27 overshoot for household footprints approaches 2.2 tCO2e/cap in 2030 and 3.1 tCO2e/cap in 2050. Global overshoots are more moderate at 0.3 tCO2e/cap in 2030 and 2.0 tCO2e/cap in 2050. Our results highlight the critical role of household lifestyle transformation in climate change mitigation. Future research can explore the diverse lifestyle change pathways necessary to align with the aspirational 1.5°C target outlined in the Paris Agreement.