Abstract
The M6.3 earthquake that occurred in southern Lazio (Central Italy) in 1654 is the strongest seismic event to have occurred in the area. However, our knowledge about this earthquake is scarce and no study has been devoted to the individuation of its causative source. The main purpose of this study is putting together all of the information available for this shock to provide reliable landmarks to identify its seismic source. To this end, we present and discuss historical, hydrological, geological, and seismological data, both reviewed and newly acquired. An important, novel part of this study relies on an analysis of the coseismic hydrological changes associated with the 1654 earthquake and on the comparison of their distribution with models of the coseismic strain field induced by a number of potential seismogenic sources. We find more satisfactory results when imposing a lateral component of slip to the faults investigated. In particular, oblique left-lateral sources display a better fit between strain and hydrological signatures. Finally, the cross-analysis between the results from modeling and the other pieces of evidence collected point to the Sora fault, with its trend variability, as the probable causative source of the 1654 earthquake.
Highlights
Motivated by the limited knowledge concerning the M > 6 earthquake of 1654, this study is an attempt to understand the event that damaged the region of Lazio-Abruzzo in Central Italy, less than 100 km from Rome and Naples (Figure 1)
The study area is located in the Central Apennines, an East verging, fold-and-thrust belt that developed during the Late Cretaceous to present Africa–Europe plate convergence [1,2])
Seismogenic sources investigated (Figure 6a-e), we obtain a limited agreement between there is no close association between the location of this source and the distribution of the the predicted pattern of strain and the location of the hydrological changes
Summary
Motivated by the limited knowledge concerning the M > 6 earthquake of 1654, this study is an attempt to understand the event that damaged the region of Lazio-Abruzzo in Central Italy, less than 100 km from Rome and Naples (Figure 1). Records on this earthquake are available but they are too old for seismogram data and are beyond the age limit for applying seismological analysis to robust historical documentation, including recognition of the causative fault that ruptured during the event. The regional seismicity and fault setting reflects the present-day NE–SW-oriented extensional regime characterizing the Central Apennines [4], with a broad and complex system of normal faults that dissect the belt and crosscut the pre-existing compressional structures
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