In search of security: Azerbaijan and the role of oil in the Caspian Sea

Abstract

Russia's neo‐imperial activism in the former Soviet republics is often singled out as the reason for these countries’ continued political, economic and social instability. More likely, as illustrated by the case of Azerbaijan, the origins of a ‘weak state’ lie in its internal weakness and divisions, which are easily exploited by the more aggressive elements of Russia's foreign policy establishment. The development of oil in the Caspian Sea as a strategy offers Azerbaijan and Aliev the best chance to enhance state and regime security because it addresses both the external and internal dimensions of security. Obstacles to fully realizing this strategy include the legal status of the Caspian, pipeline routes and Russian interference. Nevertheless, coupled with the selective use of repression in Azerbaijan and the assiduous courting of Western oil companies and governments, Aliev appears to be increasingly successful in using Caspian Sea oil to strengthen his hold on power in Azerbaijan, and to reduce the country's vulnerability to pressures from Moscow.