In search of COVID-19 transmission through an infected prey.

Abstract

This paper considers a nonlinear dynamical model of an ecosystem, which has been established through combining the classical Lotka–Volterra model with the classic SIR model. This nonlinear system consists of a generalist predator that subsists on two prey species in which disease is becoming endemic in one of them. The dynamical analysis methods prove that the system has a chaotic attractor and extreme multistability behavior, where there are infinitely many attractors that coexist under certain conditions. The occurrence of extreme multistability demonstrates the high sensitivity of the system for the initial conditions, which means that tiny changes in the original prey species could enlarge and be widespread, and that could confirm through studying the complexity of the time series of the system’s variables. Simulation results of the sample entropy algorithm show that the changes in the system’s variables expand over time. It is reasonable now to consider the endemic in the prey species of the system could evolve to be pandemic such as COVID-19. Consequently, our results could provide a foresight about the unpredictability of the COVID-19 outbreak in its original host species as well as after the transmission to other species such as humans.