In or Out: The Choice for Britain

Abstract

The choice facing British government about maintaining the status quo for sterling or joining the euro is a choice between long-term policy regimes. Short-term considerations such as the relative position of business cycles or the current level of the sterling-euro exchange rate have a bearing on the adjustment costs and the timing of entry. The article therefore examines the EMU framework versus the British framework for monetary policy; the performance of economic policy in Britain and in Euroland, and especially Germany as Euroland's main precursor; the relevance to the adjustment costs of membership to the Maastricht criteria and the Chancellor of the Exchequer's five economic tests for joining the euro; and whether or not Britain can qualify for joining EMU. The analysis is broadened to include supporting policies for monetary policy, especially fiscal, labour market and other structural policies where relevant.