Abstract

Impulsivity has been defined as choosing the smaller more immediate reward over a larger more delayed reward. The purpose of this research was to gain a deeper understanding of the mental processes involved in the decision making. We examined participants’ rates of delay discounting and probability discounting to determine their correlation with time-probability trade-offs. To establish the time-probability trade-off rate, participants adjusted a risky, immediate payoff to a delayed, certain payoff. In effect, this yielded a probability equivalent of waiting time. We found a strong, positive correlation between delay discount rates and the time-probability trade-offs. This means that impulsive people have a compulsion for immediate gratification, independent of whether the immediate reward is certain or uncertain. Thus, they seem not to be concerned with risk but rather with time.

Highlights

  • Perhaps the two most fundamental principles in financial decision making are the time value of money and the trade-off between risk and return

  • Our research hypothesis is the following: Impulsive people choose smaller, immediate reward over larger, delayed ones. They have a need for immediate gratification, even if the immediate reward is uncertain. If this hypothesis is correct, there will be a positive correlation between the delay discount rate and the time-probability trade-off

  • For small amounts the delay discount rate is significantly positively correlated with the steepness of probability discounting

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Summary

Introduction

Perhaps the two most fundamental principles in financial decision making are the time value of money and the trade-off between risk and return It is not so surprising, that in the laboratory, numerous experiments have attempted to measure how people make the trade-offs between reward and reward later and trade-offs between reward that will definitely be received and reward that might or might not happen (for a review see: Green and Myerson, 2004, 2010; McKerchar and Renda, 2012). Probability discounting is the decrease in the subjective value of an outcome as a function of its likelihood: The greater the risk aversion, the higher the discount rate. Discount rates are related to the amount of the outcome. Green et al (1997) found a magnitude effect for temporal discounting; the discount rate decreased as the amount of the delayed payoff increased

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