Improving the simulation accuracy of summer maize growth and yield by pixel-based parameterization based on assimilating upscaled MODIS LAI

Abstract

Accurately simulating maize (Zea mays L.) yield at the regional scale is of paramount importance for making informed policy adjustments and for ensuring food security. Sobol sensitivity analysis was used in this study to screen sensitive parameters of a process-based crop model (Chinese Agricultural Meteorological Model, CAMM). An upscaling approach was utilized to reduce the intra-pixel heterogeneity error of MODIS LAI. Then upscaled MODIS LAI data were assimilated into the CAMM model through a 4DVar assimilation algorithm to optimize pixel-level sensitive parameters, thereby improving the simulation accuracy of the summer maize growth process and yield. Specific leaf area (SLATB_0, SLATB_1) during the period from emergence to tasseling of summer maize exhibited the strongest impact on summer maize yield. Additionally, the average LAI value within the 85–95 % range of ordered LAI values for small pixels within large pixels effectively reduced the intra-pixel heterogeneity error of MODIS LAI, and pixel-based parameterization of SLATB_0 and SLATB_1 at a larger pixel scale (0.0625°) was achieved. Based on yields recorded at agrometeorological stations from 2015 to 2020, assimilated yields in both data assimilation scheme 1 (DA1, optimization of only the sensitive parameter SLATB_0) and scheme 2 (DA2, simultaneous optimization of sensitive parameters SLATB_0 and SLATB_1) exhibited higher accuracy than schemes without data assimilation (with r values of 0.41–0.72 and NRMSE values of 19–30 %). Furthermore, DA2 showed greater simulation accuracy (r: 0.64–0.93, NRMSE: 9–21 %) than DA1 (r: 0.61–0.91, NRMSE: 12–23 %). Upscaling remotely sensed LAI products can significantly reduce the uncertainties of LAI data at a larger pixel scale, and assimilating these LAI data into crop models can effectively increase the simulation accuracy of crop growth and development processes at the regional scale.