Abstract
AbstractIn the Luangwa basin in Zambia, long‐term total water storage variations were observed with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, but not reproduced by a standard conceptual hydrological model that encapsulates our current understanding of the dominant regional hydrological processes. The objective of this study was to identify potential processes underlying these low‐frequency variations through combined data analysis and model hypothesis testing. First, we analyzed the effect of data uncertainty by contrasting observed storage variations with multi‐annual estimates of precipitation and evaporation from multiple data sources. Second, we analyzed four different combinations of model forcing and evaluated their skill to reproduce the observed long‐term storage variations. Third, we formulated alternative model hypotheses for groundwater export to potentially explain low‐frequency storage variations. Overall, the results suggest that the initial model's inability to reproduce the observed low‐frequency storage variations was partly due to the forcing data used and partly due to the missing representation of regional groundwater export. More specifically, the choice of data source affected the model's ability to reproduce annual maximum storage fluctuations, whereas the annual minima improved by adapting the model structure to allow for groundwater export from a deeper groundwater layer. This suggests that, in contrast to previous research, conceptual models can reproduce long‐term storage fluctuations if a suitable model structure is used. Overall, the results highlight the value of alternative data sources and iterative testing of model structural hypotheses to improve runoff predictions in a poorly gauged basin leading to enhanced understanding of its hydrological processes.
Highlights
Long-term and low-frequency total water storage variations have been observed in many regions world-wide (Long et al, 2017; Scanlon et al, 2018)
The results indicated modeled annual maximum storage fluctuations were to a large extent controlled by the choice of forcing data, whereas modeled annual minima were influenced by pro
In the Luangwa basin, long-term total water storage variations were observed with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), but not reproduced by a previously developed process-based hydrological model that encapsulates our current understanding of the dominant regional hydrological processes
Summary
Long-term and low-frequency total water storage variations have been observed in many regions world-wide (Long et al, 2017; Scanlon et al, 2018). This includes long-term increasing or decreasing storage trends and multi-annual variabilities over ≥10 years. Decreasing storage trends were observed in Australia during the Millennium Drought in 1997–2010 (e.g., Chen et al, 2016; Leblanc et al, 2009; Zhao et al, 2017a), whereas both, increasing and decreasing long-term trends as well as multi-annual variabilities were observed in the United States (Boutt, 2017; Long et al, 2013), the La Plata basin in South America (Chen et al, 2010), China
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