Abstract
Climate change adaptation is a complex human process, framed by uncertainties and constraints, which is difficult to capture in existing assessment models. Attempts to improve model representations are hampered by a shortage of systematic descriptions of adaptation processes and their relevance to models. This paper reviews the scientific literature to investigate conceptualisations and models of climate change adaptation, and the ways in which representation of adaptation in models can be improved. The review shows that real-world adaptive responses can be differentiated along a number of dimensions including intent or purpose, timescale, spatial scale, beneficiaries and providers, type of action, and sector. However, models of climate change consequences for land use and water management currently provide poor coverage of these dimensions, instead modelling adaptation in an artificial and subjective manner. While different modelling approaches do capture distinct aspects of the adaptive process, they have done so in relative isolation, without producing improved unified representations. Furthermore, adaptation is often assumed to be objective, effective and consistent through time, with only a minority of models taking account of the human decisions underpinning the choice of adaptation measures (14%), the triggers that motivate actions (38%) or the time-lags and constraints that may limit their uptake and effectiveness (14%). No models included adaptation to take advantage of beneficial opportunities of climate change. Based on these insights, transferable recommendations are made on directions for future model development that may enhance realism within models, while also advancing our understanding of the processes and effectiveness of adaptation to a changing climate.
Highlights
Climate change adaptation is an increasing necessity across human and natural systems, notwithstanding global efforts to reduce emissions, such as those stemming from the ParisAgreement
Using the above adaptation characteristics as a framework, we reviewed the representation of adaptation within a range of modelling studies in the land and water sectors
We find several models that build on the obvious links between agriculture and water resources (e.g. Hayashi et al 2013; Girard et al 2015a, b; Vaghefi et al 2015; Mango et al 2011; Arnold et al 2015), but extremely important teleconnections and links between pastoral and arable agriculture; agriculture, forestry and urban development; and levels of land management intensity are insufficiently represented (Seto et al 2012; Meyfroidt et al 2013; Rosa et al 2014; Rose 2014; Brown et al 2017)
Summary
Climate change adaptation is an increasing necessity across human and natural systems, notwithstanding global efforts to reduce emissions, such as those stemming from the Paris. Adaptive responses can be triggered by a proactive decision process (planned adaptation) or occur spontaneously (autonomous adaptation) as an (often) indirect consequence of changes in natural or human systems (Smit et al 2000; Füssel 2007; Tol et al 2008; Japanese Ministry of Environment 2010; Berrang-Ford et al 2011; IPCC 2014) This distinction has important implications for the timescales represented in models. The capacity to adapt depends largely on contextual factors, which may include economic and natural resources, social networks, entitlements, institutions and governance, human resources, knowledge and technology (Schneider et al 2000; Brooks et al 2005; Moser and Ekstrom 2010) While these factors can become all-encompassing at a general level, they do have consistent characteristics across cases. The models we reviewed showed strong specialisation, individually and collectively, in terms of sectoral and process focus, leaving interactions between these highly under-represented
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