Improving the methodological approach to determining the number of postpostgraduates planned for admission

Abstract

The process of managing a higher institution in determining the number of postgraduates who are planned for admission is the object of this study. The problem that was addressed is the inability to reasonably predict the need for the number of postgraduates to offset the negative consequences of staff turnover in a higher education institution. An improved method of forecasting the trend of the time series of indicators that form the need for specialists of higher qualification has been proposed. Special feature of the proposed method is the ability to reasonably determine the number of full-time positions of higher qualification specialists; those dismissed; postgraduates who successfully defended their thesis over a certain period. Due to this feature of this method, it is possible to form reasonable initial data for predicting the negative consequences of staff turnover in a higher education institution. The scope of practical use of this method for determining the projected indicators is the stage of planning the educational process in a higher education institution. A comprehensive methodology for determining the number of postgraduates who are planned for admission to postgraduate studies in specialties is proposed. Applying the suggested procedure can make it possible to obtain the projected data with sufficient accuracy and prevent excessive recruitment, or under-recruitment of postgraduates, which will affect the expenditure of finances and the quality of higher education organization. The projected inaccuracy of the existing approach to determining the number of postgraduates compared to the proposed one is about 35 %. The peculiarity of the methodology is the ability to justify the number of postgraduates that need to be recruited to graduate school, taking into consideration regional and sectoral contexts. Additionally, a special feature of this procedure is its versatility for any specialty and any institution of higher education. The scope and conditions for the practical use of this set of techniques for determining the projected indicators is the process of managing a higher education institution when determining the need for postgraduates