Abstract

Known methods of assessing the level of traffic safety on highway sections are considered. When developing or improving road safety assessment methods, it is necessary to establish, among other things, the influence of variable road factors on traffic safety and to give a quantitative and qualitative assessment of the degree of their change. Factors that can significantly affect forecasting accuracy have been identified. All methods of detecting dangerous areas that are currently available are offered, based on traffic accident statistics. At different times, the following methods were proposed: analysis of statistical data by the methods of probability theory; use of multivariate correlation analysis data; analysis of traffic speed charts (methods of safety factors and "acceleration noise"); analysis using coefficients of relative influence of individual elements of the road (method of accident rates); method of conflict situations. It is proposed to improve the existing method by introducing additional parameters, which were obtained as a result of the formalization of accident statistics at the places of concentration of traffic accidents. It is proposed to evaluate traffic safety conditions by the final sum of points (on a 100-point scale), which takes into account a number of road construction characteristics. In our opinion, in conditions where the assessment of road safety conditions is entrusted to the representatives of the highway owner, this method looks more effective, since the road owner does not always or does not fully possess reliable statistical information about road accidents in the area being evaluated. The proposed method of evaluating the level of traffic safety is an undoubted step forward on the path of simplification and clarification existing methods. In the future, work on the construction of a simulation model of the interaction of the driver and the road as a subsystem of the general system "driver-car-road-environment" looks promising, by relying on criteria that were previously neglected - technical means of traffic management. This will make it possible to calibrate the proposed method and transfer its action to the software environment. In this way, the research will receive a significant platform for the involvement of additional variables - taking into account the road category, time of day, informativeness of technical means, their deformability, etc.

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