Improving the efficiency and safety of operation of underground tunnel escalators. Forecasting model

Abstract

The subways of Moscow and St. Petersburg are the oldest in Russia. Its infrastructure includes a diverse fleet of equipment. The fleet of rolling stock in the last decade was mainly renewed, while due to the peculiarities of operation and mainly for financial reasons, the escalator fleet will not be replaced for a long time. In this connection, the main task of the departments responsible for the operation of escalators is to maintain the rapidly aging fleet in good condition. Thus, a situation, when the escalator economy is a source of costs to meet the constantly increasing demand for resources is formed. At the same time, the limited allocation of all types of resources only aggravates the current situation. The above circumstances contribute to the actualization of the issue of selection of tools, which makes it possible to increase the efficiency and safety of operation of underground tunnel escalators. According to the authors of the paper, one of such tools can be the forecasting of the technical state of the elements of the escalator subsystems, made on the basis of special routing of information flows, designed for the optimal distribution of allocated resources. Since an escalator is a complex technical object of increased danger, the routing of information flows for it characterizing its technical condition is possible only on the basis of a preliminary decomposition into information levels. For this reason, the beginning of the paper is devoted to the decomposition of the technical state of the escalator into four information levels, covering all aspects of the technical state from the micro-level of the state of materials from which the elements of the escalator subsystems are made, ending with the functional state of the entire escalator. The purpose of the work is further revealed. It consists in describing a general mathematical model for predicting the technical state of the elements of the escalator subsystems and the requirements for its construction. The work describes the main task that solves the proposed forecast model. In conclusion, the options for using the proposed model are considered. The scientific novelty of the proposed approach lies in the use of the modern mathematical apparatus of the fuzzy set theory for processing parametric information, elements of artificial intelligence, as well as a precedent approach in analyzing the operational situation, which, in combination, are necessary to build a predictive model of the technical state as applied to the escalator facilities of the subway. From a practical point of view, it should be noted that the proposed mathematical model, implemented on the basis of modern information technologies, will make it possible to more rationally adjust the mechanisms for allocating resources, while ensuring the necessary level of safety for passenger transportation.