Abstract
The purpose of the study is to improve methods for improving the regulatory and methodological framework for assessing the environmental and economic effectiveness of land reclamation investment projects. The research methodology is based on the Monte Carlo method, which corresponds to international standards, the theory and algorithms of innovative methods for determining risks, as well as the ability to provide the user with information about the content of risk assessment operations and ensure that their preferences are taken into account in the calculation process. Currently, many tools have been developed for automating risk analysis procedures, including those performed by the Monte Carlo method, which are described in various studies with varying degrees of completeness. The analysis of priority methods of assessing the risks of achieving the projected economic indicators of project solutions is performed and the prospects of the simulation method for practical use in the field of land reclamation are shown. The results of the risk assessment of environmental and economic efficiency of anti-filtration coatings of hydraulic structures of irrigation systems performed by the Monte Carlo method in the environment of the Crystal Ball software product are presented, and the need to improve the reliability of the predicted results of the effectiveness of the designed measures is established. Future research is risk assessment of profitability of the designed activities promote the development of existing and formation of new theories to justify the feasibility of implementation of reclamation investment projects.
Highlights
The absence in the economic theory and practice of reclamation investment projects of a unified method of the effectiveness of project solutions that uniquely meets the user's multi-faceted requirements for analyzing the risk of investments has led to the priorities of heuristic models that use the skills of managers
The research methodology is based on the Monte Carlo method, which corresponds to international standards, the theory and algorithms of innovative methods for determining risks, as well as the ability to provide the user with information about the content of risk assessment operations and ensure that their preferences are taken into account in the calculation process
Insufficient attention to the specifics of reclamation investment projects when choosing the method of risk assessment, usually due to the preferences of the developer and the business entity;
Summary
The absence in the economic theory and practice of reclamation investment projects of a unified method of the effectiveness of project solutions that uniquely meets the user's multi-faceted requirements for analyzing the risk of investments has led to the priorities of heuristic models that use the skills of managers. The success of reducing the risk of reclamation investment projects is largely due to the methods used to analyze the effectiveness of the designed solutions, which significantly differ taking into account the variability (in space and time) of the project performance parameters that form quantitative risk indicators [3]. Risks of investment in projects of the development of technological processes of production and management of activities are classified in theory according to many characteristics, among which the following are most often distinguished: possible result; source and period of risk occurrence [4]
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