Improving the accuracy of predicting the hazard of the earth’s surface failure formation during underground mining of mineral deposits

Abstract

Purpose. Development of a new approach to improving the accuracy of predicting situations in which the earth’s surface failures occur as a result of undermining a rock mass during the development of mineral deposits. Methods. The critical situations, including the earth’s surface failures, are predicted on the basis of assessing the value of geoenergy and studying its change as large volumes of rock mass are involved in mining. Analytical solutions based on the fundamental laws of physics and mechanics of continuous media are used. The research is performed using methods of cause-and-effect analysis. Findings. Based on the cause-effect relationship, determined between the change in the value of the mass geoenergy and deformation processes on the daylight surface of the field, an effective method has been developed for ranking it according to the degree of hazard of failure formation with the simultaneous use of two criteria. One of the criteria is determined by the relative change in geoenergy during the system transition from the initial (stable) state to the current one, which becomes unstable under certain conditions. The second criterion is formed on the basis of the change in geoenergy during the transition from the current (possibly unstable) state to the final (stable) state. Originality. For the first time, when zoning the daylight surface of a field according to the degree of hazard of failure formation, two ranking criteria are used simultaneously, based on the assessment of geoenergy accumulated in a heterogeneous mass, when it is undermined in the conditions of triaxial compression. Practical implications. The territory ranking method, developed on the basis of the used criteria for hazard of failure formation, allows improving the quality of situational control, predicting risk situations and their development, as well as optimizing the short-term and long-term plans for the development of mining operations.