Improving Seasonal Forecast Using Probabilistic Deep Learning

Abstract

AbstractThe path toward realizing the potential of seasonal forecasting and its socioeconomic benefits relies on improving general circulation model (GCM) based dynamical forecast systems. To improve dynamical seasonal forecasts, it is crucial to set up forecast benchmarks, and clarify forecast limitations posed by model initialization errors, formulation deficiencies, and internal climate variability. With huge costs in generating large forecast ensembles, and limited observations for forecast verification, the seasonal forecast benchmarking and diagnosing task proves challenging. Here, we develop a probabilistic deep learning‐based statistical forecast methodology, drawing on a wealth of climate simulations to enhance seasonal forecast capability and forecast diagnosis. By explicitly modeling the internal climate variability and GCM formulation differences, the proposed Conditional Generative Forecasting (CGF) methodology enables bypassing crucial barriers in dynamical forecast, and offers a top‐down viewpoint to examine how complicated GCMs encode the seasonal predictability information. We apply the CGF methodology for global seasonal forecast of precipitation and 2 m air temperature, based on a unique data set consisting 52,201 years of climate simulation. Results show that the CGF methodology can faithfully represent the seasonal predictability information encoded in GCMs. We successfully apply this learned relationship in real‐world seasonal forecast, achieving competitive performance compared to dynamical forecasts. Using this CGF as benchmark, we reveal the impact of insufficient forecast spread sampling that limits the skill of the considered dynamical forecast system. Finally, we introduce different strategies for composing ensembles using the CGF methodology, highlighting the potential for leveraging the strengths of multiple GCMs to achieve advantgeous seasonal forecast.