Improving risk governance strategies via learning: a comparative analysis of solar radiation modification and gene drives

Abstract

Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) and gene drive organisms (GDOs) have been proposed as technological responses to complex entrenched environmental challenges. They also share several characteristics of emerging risks, including extensive uncertainties, systemic interdependencies, and risk profiles intertwined with societal contexts. This Perspective conducts a comparative analysis of the two technologies, and identifies ways in which their research and policy communities may learn from each other to inform future risk governance strategies. We find that SAI and GDOs share common features of aiming to improve or restore a public good, are characterized by numerous potential ecological, societal, and ethical risks associated with deep uncertainty, and are challenged by how best to coordinate behavior of different actors. Meanwhile, SAI and GDOs differ in their temporal and spatial mode of deployment, spread, degree and type of reversibility, and potential for environmental monitoring. Based on this analysis, we find the field of SAI may learn from GDOs by enhancing its international collaborations for governance and oversight, while the field of GDOs may learn from SAI by investing in research focused on economics and decision-modeling. Additionally, given the relatively early development stages of SAI and GDOs, there may be ample opportunities to learn from risk governance efforts of other emerging technologies, including the need for improved monitoring and incorporating aspects of responsible innovation in research and any deployment.