Improving remotely-sensed crop monitoring by NDVI-based crop phenology estimators for corn and soybeans in Iowa and Illinois, USA

Abstract

Weather-related risks in crop production are not only crucial for farmers but also for market participants and policymakers since securing food supply is an important issue for society. Although crop growth condition and phenology represent essential information regarding such risks, extensive observations of these variables are virtually non-existent in many parts of the world. In this study, we developed an integrative approach to remotely monitor crop growth at a large scale. For corn and soybeans in Iowa and Illinois in the United States (2003–2015), we monitored crop growth and crop phenology with earth observation data and compared it against the United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) crop statistics. For crop phenology, we calculated three phenology metrics (i.e., start of season, end of season, and peak of season) at the pixel level from the MODIS 16-day Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). For growth condition, we used two distinct approaches to acquire crop growth condition indicators: a process-based crop growth modeling and a satellite-NDVI-based method. Based on their pixel-wise historical distributions, we monitored relative growth strength and scaled-up that to the state-level. The estimates were compared with the crop progress and condition data of NASS. For the state-level phenology, the avg. root-mean-square-error (RMSE) of the estimates was 8.6 days for the all three metrics after bias correction. The absolute mean errors for the three metrics were smaller than 2.6 days after bias correction. For the condition, the state-level 10-day estimates showed moderate agreements with the observations (avg. RMSE = 10.02%). Notably, the condition estimates were sensitive to the severe degradation in 2003, 2012, and 2013 for both crops. In 2010, 2011 and 2013, unusually high errors occurred at the very beginning stage of growth (DOY 140–150), which attenuated over time. As the cumulative biomass and NDVI showed little change in comparison to the period mean biomass and NDVI for the spikes, this seems to be an error associated with variations in growth timing. Overall, the model using accumulated NDVI (S5) is preferable due to its performance and methodological simplicity. The proposed approach enables us to monitor crop growth for any given period and place where long-term statistics are available. It can be used to assist crop monitoring at large scales.