Improving prognosis and assessing adjuvant chemotherapy benefit in locally advanced rectal cancer with deep learning for MRI: A retrospective, multi-cohort study

Abstract

PurposeAdjuvant therapy is recommended to minimize the risk of distant metastasis (DM) and local recurrence (LR) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). However, its role is controversial. We aimed to develop a pretreatment MRI-based deep learning model to predict LR, DM, and overall survival (OS) over 5 years after surgery and to identify patients benefitting from adjuvant chemotherapy (AC). Materials and methodsThe multi-survival tasks network (MuST) model was developed in a primary cohort (n = 308) and validated using two external cohorts (n = 247, 245). An AC decision tree integrating the MuST-DM score, perineural invasion (PNI), and preoperative carbohydrate antigen 19–9 (CA19-9) was constructed to assess chemotherapy benefits and aid personalized treatment of patients. We also quantified the prognostic improvement of the decision tree. ResultsThe MuST network demonstrated high prognostic accuracy in the primary and two external cohorts for the prediction of three different survival tasks. Within the stratified analysis and decision tree, patients with CA19-9 levels > 37 U/mL and high MuST-DM scores exhibited favorable chemotherapy efficacy. Similar results were observed in PNI-positive patients with low MuST-DM scores. PNI-negative patients with low MuST-DM scores exhibited poor chemotherapy efficacy. Based on the decision tree, 14 additional patients benefiting from AC and 391 patients who received over-treatment were identified in this retrospective study. ConclusionThe MuST model accurately and non-invasively predicted OS, DM, and LR. A specific and direct tool linking chemotherapy decisions and benefit quantification has also been provided.