Improving Predictions of Salt Marsh Evolution Through Better Integration of Data and Models

Abstract

Salt marshes are recognized as valuable resources that are threatened by climate change and human activities. Better management and planning for these ecosystems will depend on understanding which marshes are most vulnerable, what is driving their change, and what their future trajectory is likely to be. Both observations and models have provided inconsistent answers to these questions, likely in part because of comparisons among sites and/or models that differ significantly in their characteristics and processes. Some of these differences almost certainly arise from processes that are not fully accounted for in marsh morphodynamic models. Here, we review distinguishing properties of marshes, important processes missing from many morphodynamic models, and key measurements missing from many observational studies. We then suggest some comparisons between models and observations that will provide critical tests and insights to improve our ability to forecast future change in these coastal landscapes.