Improving prediction of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy: From SUDEP-7 to SUDEP-3.

Abstract

Sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) is a significant cause of mortality in epilepsy. The aim of this study is to evaluate the validity of the SUDEP-7 inventory and its components as tools for predicting SUDEP risk, and to develop and validate an improved inventory. The study included 28 patients who underwent video-electroencephalography (EEG) monitoring and later died of SUDEP, and 56 age- and sex-matched control patients with epilepsy. The SUDEP-7 score, its individual components, and an alternative inventory were examined as predictors of SUDEP. SUDEP-7 scores were significantly higher among SUDEP patients compared with controls, both at time of admission (p=0.024) and most recent follow-up (p=0.016). SUDEP-7 scores declined only among controls, who demonstrated reduced seizure frequency. Seizure freedom after epilepsy surgery was also associated with survival. Several components of the SUDEP-7 inventory were independently associated with higher risk of SUDEP, including more than three generalized tonic-clonic (GTC) seizures (p=0.002), one or more GTC seizures (p=0.001), or one or more seizures of any type within the last year (p=0.013), and intellectual disability (p=0.031). In stepwise regression models, SUDEP-7 scores did not enhance the prediction of SUDEP over either GTC seizure frequency or seizure frequency alone. A novel SUDEP-3 inventory comprising GTC seizure frequency, seizure frequency, and intellectual disability (p<0.001) outperformed the SUDEP-7 inventory (p=0.010) in predicting SUDEP. Our findings demonstrate the limitations of the SUDEP-7 inventory. We propose a new three-item SUDEP-3 inventory, which predicts SUDEP better than the SUDEP-7.