Improving plot-level above ground biomass estimation in tropical Indian forests

Abstract

Accurate plot-level estimates of above ground biomass (AGB) are crucial for reducing uncertainty in spatial AGB quantification, a key requirement for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation framework (REDD+) and achieving Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) goals. This study explores the impact of plot size, selection and use of height-diameter (H–D) model, and allometric models on plot-level AGB estimation in tropical Indian forests. We analyze a dataset of 8179 tree measurements from 51 one-hectare plots across four tropical sites to investigate these factors and improve estimation accuracy. Our findings highlight the importance of locally derived H–D models for superior accuracy. We propose two H–D models for improved plot-level AGB estimation accuracy in tropical Indian forests: a general model with a residual standard error (RSE) of 4.18 m and a forest type-specific model with a RSE of 3.65 m. These models outperform global models, which significantly underestimate tree height by up to 51.3% and overestimate by 43.4% across our sites. The developed H–D models were evaluated using spatial cross-validation to ensure broader applicability across Indian tropical forests. Further, we evaluated the impact of the choice of the allometric model on plot-level AGB estimation using the prevalent models (local destructive models by the Forest Survey of India and global pantropical models). Our results indicate minimal variability between the local destructive models and the pantropical model when height measurements are derived from this study's developed H–D models. We have also investigated the effect of plot size on plot-level AGB estimation using synthetic plots generated from 1-ha plot data. Notably, the relative error diminishes from approximately 22% to about 5% as plot size increases from 0.04 ha (20x20m) to 0.49 ha (70x70m) across all sites, and we recommend field plots of size ≥0.5 ha for AGB mapping over Tropical Indian Forests. By making this data publicly available, this study paves the way for more accurate spatial AGB mapping in tropical Indian forests, ultimately contributing to better forest management.