Abstract

Abstract. The Canadian Land Surface Scheme and Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CLASS-CTEM) together form the land surface component of the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM). Here, we investigate the impact of changes to CLASS-CTEM that are designed to improve the simulation of permafrost physics. Overall, 18 tests were performed, including changing the model configuration (number and depth of ground layers, different soil permeable depth datasets, adding a surface moss layer), and investigating alternative parameterizations of soil hydrology, soil thermal conductivity, and snow properties. To evaluate these changes, CLASS-CTEM outputs were compared to 1570 active layer thickness (ALT) measurements from 97 observation sites that are part of the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P), 105 106 monthly ground temperature observations from 132 GTN-P borehole sites, a blend of five observation-based snow water equivalent (SWE) datasets (Blended-5), remotely sensed albedo, and seasonal discharge for major rivers draining permafrost regions. From the tests performed, the final revised model configuration has more ground layers (increased from 3 to 20) extending to greater depth (from 4.1 to 61.4 m) and uses a new soil permeable depths dataset with a surface layer of moss added. The most beneficial change to the model parameterizations was incorporation of unfrozen water in frozen soils. These changes to CLASS-CTEM cause a small improvement in simulated SWE with little change in surface albedo but greatly improve the model performance at the GTN-P ALT and borehole sites. Compared to the GTN-P observations, the revised CLASS-CTEM ALTs have a weighted mean absolute error (wMAE) of 0.41–0.47 m (depending on configuration), improved from >2.5 m for the original model, while the borehole sites see a consistent improvement in wMAE for most seasons and depths considered, with seasonal wMAE values for the shallow surface layers of the revised model simulation of at most 3.7 ∘C, which is 1.2 ∘C more than the wMAE of the screen-level air temperature used to drive the model as compared to site-level observations (2.5 ∘C). Subgrid heterogeneity estimates were derived from the standard deviation of ALT on the 1 km2 measurement grids at the GTN-P ALT sites, the spread in wMAE in grid cells with multiple GTN-P ALT sites, as well as from 35 boreholes measured within a 1200 km2 region as part of the Slave Province Surficial Materials and Permafrost Study. Given the size of the model grid cells (approximately 2.8∘), subgrid heterogeneity makes it likely difficult to appreciably reduce the wMAE of ALT or borehole temperatures much further.

Highlights

  • Permafrost underlies between 9 % and 14 % of the exposed land surface north of 60◦ S (13–18×106 km2; Gruber, 2012)

  • Given that Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS)-CTEM is being run on the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM) grid, it is possible that site conditions such as meteorology, orography, or vegetation at the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) active layer thickness (ALT) measurement sites could be quite dissimilar to those of the nearest grid cell, which covers many thousands of km2

  • Drawing from these recommendations and other studies, 18 experiments were carried out to investigate the influence of (1) the number of ground layers, (2) soil permeable depth datasets, (3) the addition of a moss layer, (4) changing the soil thermal conductivity formulation, (5) altering the derivation of snow cover based on snow depth, (6) adding the effect of wind speed to the calculation of fresh snow density, (7) changing the model’s snow albedo decay calculation to an efficient spectral parameterization, and (8) modifications to frozen soil hydrology including allowing unfrozen water in frozen soils and an alteration to hydraulic conductivity and soil matric potential for the presence of ice

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Summary

Introduction

Permafrost underlies between 9 % and 14 % of the exposed land surface north of 60◦ S (13–18×106 km2; Gruber, 2012). The presence of perennially frozen soil at depth has strong impacts on local hydrology, energy fluxes, plant communities, and carbon dynamics. Several factors influence ground temperature and the presence of permafrost, including snow cover, vegetation structure and function, hydrology, and topography (Loranty et al, 2018). Permafrost has been warming and active layers have thickened over the last three decades (Vaughan et al, 2013). This trend is expected to continue due to climate change (Chadburn et al, 2017) making the carbon presently contained in frozen soils vulnerable to release to the atmosphere either as carbon dioxide or methane, depending on local conditions. Since the carbon stored in frozen soils becomes readily accessible to microbial respiration once soils thaw, accurately simulating the physics of the permafrost response to a changing climate is vital for reliable predictions of the permafrost carbon feedback to climate change

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