Improving pandemic mitigation policies across communities through coupled dynamics of risk perception and infection.

M J Silk,R A Bentley,S Carrignon,N H Fefferman

doi:10.1098/rspb.2021.0834

M J Silk, R A Bentley + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2021.0834

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Abstract

Capturing the coupled dynamics between individual behavioural decisions that affect disease transmission and the epidemiology of outbreaks is critical to pandemic mitigation strategy. We develop a multiplex network approach to model how adherence to health-protective behaviours that impact COVID-19 spread are shaped by perceived risks and resulting community norms. We focus on three synergistic dynamics governing individual behavioural choices: (i) social construction of concern, (ii) awareness of disease incidence, and (iii) reassurance by lack of disease. We show why policies enacted early or broadly can cause communities to become reassured and therefore unwilling to maintain or adopt actions. Public health policies for which success relies on collective action should therefore exploit the behaviourally receptive phase; the period between the generation of sufficient concern to foster adoption of novel actions and the relaxation of adherence driven by reassurance fostered by avoidance of negative outcomes over time.

Highlights

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has cemented the understanding among public health researchers, practitioners and policy makers that the spread of infectious disease is more than a purely epidemiological process
While this model is parameterized to reflect current COVID-19 features and challenges, it seems clear that socio-behavioural dynamics that shape the nature of risk perception, and disease protective behaviours should be important for any pandemic preparedness planning for the future
Our results clearly show the importance of all the considered mechanisms in driving concern and shaping the ongoing dynamics of disease progression through distinct social communities

Summary

Introduction

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has cemented the understanding among public health researchers, practitioners and policy makers that the spread of infectious disease is more than a purely epidemiological process. Understanding, analysing and predicting such coupled dynamics, in which behavioural responses themselves shift over space and time, will allow us to build outbreak models that can apply broadly across regions and withstand shifting conditions for more than a few weeks at a time Such models can support policy makers in designing flexible, responsive plans that can be better communicated to, and accepted by, the public, improving efforts to mitigate current risks and helping us prepare for future pandemics. We explore the relative impact of social versus observational estimation of disease risk on the epidemic outcomes in communities, the role of reassurance on the likely dynamics in risk behaviours over time and the influence of modularity and homophily according to predisposition on these patterns While this model is parameterized to reflect current COVID-19 features and challenges, it seems clear that socio-behavioural dynamics that shape the nature of risk perception, and disease protective behaviours should be important for any pandemic preparedness planning for the future.

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