Improving models to predict holocellulose and Klason lignin contents for peat soil organic matter with mid-infrared spectra

Abstract

Abstract. To understand global soil organic matter (SOM) chemistry and its dynamics, we need tools to efficiently quantify SOM properties, for example, prediction models using mid-infrared spectra. However, the advantages of such models rely on their validity and accuracy. Recently, Hodgkins et al. (2018) developed models to quantitatively predict peat holocellulose and Klason lignin contents, two indicators of SOM stability and major fractions of organic matter. The models may help to understand large-scale SOM gradients and have been used in various studies. A research gap to fill is that these models have not been validated in detail yet. What are their limitations and how can we improve them? This study provides a validation with the aim to identify concrete steps to improve these models. As a first step, we provide several improvements using the original training data. The major limitation we identified is that the original training data are not representative for a range of diverse peat samples. This causes both biased estimates and extrapolation uncertainty under the original models. In addition, the original models can in practice produce unrealistic predictions (negative values or values >100 mass-%). Our improved models partly reduce the observed bias, have a better predictive performance for the training data, and avoid such unrealistic predictions. Finally, we provide a proof of concept that holocellulose contents can also be predicted for mineral-rich samples (e.g., peat with mineral admixtures or potentially mineral soils). A key step to improve the models will be to collect training data that are representative for SOM formed under various conditions. This study opens directions to develop operational models to predict SOM holocellulose and Klason lignin contents from mid-infrared spectra.