Abstract
To forecast marine disease outbreaks as oceans warm requires new environmental surveillance tools. We describe an iterative process for developing these tools that combines research, development and deployment for suitable systems. The first step is to identify candidate host–pathogen systems. The 24 candidate systems we identified include sponges, corals, oysters, crustaceans, sea stars, fishes and sea grasses (among others). To illustrate the other steps, we present a case study of epizootic shell disease (ESD) in the American lobster. Increasing prevalence of ESD is a contributing factor to lobster fishery collapse in southern New England (SNE), raising concerns that disease prevalence will increase in the northern Gulf of Maine under climate change. The lowest maximum bottom temperature associated with ESD prevalence in SNE is 12°C. Our seasonal outlook for 2015 and long-term projections show bottom temperatures greater than or equal to 12°C may occur in this and coming years in the coastal bays of Maine. The tools presented will allow managers to target efforts to monitor the effects of ESD on fishery sustainability and will be iteratively refined. The approach and case example highlight that temperature-based surveillance tools can inform research, monitoring and management of emerging and continuing marine disease threats.
Highlights
Media coverage of human emergencies caused by heat waves, severe tropical storms, blizzards, tornados, bush fires, earthquakes and tsunamis overshadow& 2016 The Authors
Recent increases in temperatures thought to have contributed to epizootic shell disease (ESD) onset and rapid progression in southern New England (SNE) are projected to continue unabated
Concerns related to ESD prevalence increase and ESD expansion in the northern Gulf of Maine seem warranted but require further research and clarification
Summary
Media coverage of human emergencies caused by heat waves, severe tropical storms, blizzards, tornados, bush fires, earthquakes and tsunamis overshadow. Significant investments in forecasting models have created the capability to develop such surveillance tools and climate change provides greater impetus for their use [2] This is especially the case in the marine environment where the incidence of disease has been on the rise [3,4,5] and some diseases, like those of corals, are expected to increase with warming [1]. The US-based NOAA Coral Reef Watch (CRW) programme maintains a website that hosts near real-time monitoring tools, seasonal outlooks and long-term projections of bleaching conditions under climate change ([7]; coralreefwatch.noaa.gov). These tools inform resource managers of bleaching events and monitor the scale and severity of the events [7,15]. We present a case study showing our process and initial development of surveillance tools for epizootic shell disease (ESD) in the American lobster, Homarus americanus
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