Abstract
International trade of species facilitates the establishment of nonnative organisms. Highlighting areas potentially suitable for invasive species (risk areas) allows for effective importation regulations to prevent the spread of and the potential damage caused by such species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to predict risk areas but they usually disregard intraspe-cific differentiation and corresponding differences in climatic requirements. We used Bombus terrestris as an example of a commonly traded species and developed SDMs at the species-and subspecies-level to assess the value of subspecific information for risk area predictions. We show that species-level models are less efficient than subspecies-based SDMs and that risk areas differ considerably between subspecies. Therefore, the invasive potential of a species can depend on the subspecies imported and the particular climatic condition of the target area. This paves the way to novel policy-relevant guidelines to legislate for smart regulations instead of complete import interdictions.
Highlights
Globalization of trade of many species as food, game, pets, or beneficial organisms for pest control and pollination facilitates the establishment of nonnative organisms (Perrings et al 2010)
For ssp-Species distribution models (SDMs), the cross-validated area under the curve (AUC), true skill statistic (TSS), sensitivities, and specificities were high suggesting that models efficiently reflected the subspecies distribution (Table 3)
These values were always higher for each ssp-SDM than for the species-level suggesting that independent subspecies models were more efficient than the sp-SDM (Table 3)
Summary
Globalization of trade of many species as food, game, pets, or beneficial organisms for pest control and pollination facilitates the establishment of nonnative organisms (Perrings et al 2010). More than two million colonies of the most often traded bumblebee, Bombus terrestris, are produced each year to supply the constant demand. They are shipped throughout the world leading frequently to accidental escapes (Velthuis & van Doorn 2006). Bombus terrestris is of West-Palearctic origin but accidental escapes from greenhouses and deliberate releases for pollination of agricultural fields fostered establishments in Japan, Chile, Argentina, New Zealand, and Tasmania (Inari et al 2005; Schmid-Hempel et al 2007; Goulson 2010; Murray et al 2013), leading to dramatic effects on native species (Dafni & Shmida 1996; review in Lecocq et al 2015b)
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