Abstract
The Innovative Mathematical Model for Earthquake Prediction (IMMEP) based on Spatial Connection Theory and reverse Poisson’s distribution was developed previously. Using data from National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC), Spatial Connection Models were constructed using KML programming language in Google Earth program for six fault zones around the world: California, Central USA, Northeast USA, Hawaii, Turkey, and Japan. The Poisson Range Identifier (Pri) values were computed, and the Poisson’s Distribution was applied to the Pri values to arrive at a distance factor. Based on the reverse Poisson’s Distribution, earthquake predictions were carried out. To improve the Innovative Mathematical Model for Earthquake Prediction, further analysis was carried out on California fault zone earthquake data, utilizing Poisson’s and Exponential Distributions. The predictions of the Poisson’s and Exponential Distribution were nearby validating the Spatial Connection Theory By using technological advances and improving the probability of future earthquake predictions, this research provides an effective contribution to earth science. Utilizing the results of this research, disaster management agencies around the world can allocate their resources in appropriate locations to assist people during evacuation and save lives.
Highlights
ObjectiveThe objective of this research is to improve upon a previously developed Innovative Mathematical Model for Earthquake Prediction
The Spatial Connection Theory was confirmed when the California Fault Zone was split into two zones for analysis
The exponential distribution confirmed the results of the Poisson Range Identifier Analysis and allowed for improvement of the model
Summary
ObjectiveThe objective of this research is to improve upon a previously developed Innovative Mathematical Model for Earthquake Prediction. Simultaneous changes in different stations noticed, signal a possibility of an earthquake. One such example is the Izu island earthquake in Japan. The geoelectric and geomagnetic dipoles at the Wak-Air and Boe-Air stations experienced great frequency changes before the earthquake. The intensity of ground shaking at the site depends on the magnitude of the earthquake and on the distance from the site to the earthquake [6]. Moment Magnitude is a good measure of the amount of energy released during an earthquake, which is not dependent on ground shaking levels or level of damage. After great levels of dilatancy, there are earthquakes in the area where the energy was released from the dilatory rock. Possible factors to experiment on are land deformations, tectonic movements, seismic activity, and differences in seismic wave velocities of different world regions, geomagnetic and geoelectric phenomenons, and active faults
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