Improving Harvey Forecasts with Next-Generation Weather Satellites: Advanced Hurricane Analysis and Prediction with Assimilation of GOES-R All-Sky Radiances

Abstract

AbstractHurricane Harvey brought catastrophic destruction and historical flooding to the Gulf Coast region in late August 2017. Guided by numerical weather prediction models, operational forecasters at NOAA provided outstanding forecasts of Harvey’s future path and potential for record flooding days in advance. These forecasts were valuable to the public and emergency managers in protecting lives and property. The current study shows the potential for further improving Harvey’s analysis and prediction through advanced ensemble assimilation of high-spatiotemporal all-sky infrared radiances from the newly launched, next-generation geostationary weather satellite, GOES-16. Although findings from this single-event study should be further evaluated, the results highlight the potential improvement in hurricane prediction that is possible via sustained investment in advanced observing systems, such as those from weather satellites, comprehensive data assimilation methodologies that can more effectively ingest existing and future observations, higher-resolution weather prediction models with more accurate numerics and physics, and high-performance computing facilities that can perform advanced analysis and forecasting in a timely manner.