Abstract
AbstractAs companies’ environment is becoming increasingly volatile, scanning systems gain in importance. We propose a hybrid process model for such systems’ information gathering and interpretation tasks that combines quantitative information derived from regression analyses and qualitative knowledge from expert interviews. For the latter, we apply Bayesian networks. We derive the need for such a hybrid process model from a literature review. We lay out our model to find a suitable set of business environment indicators to forecast a company’s key financials. Deriving lessons learned from a prototype in the industrial sector, we evaluate the utility of our model following the design science research paradigm. We find our model to especially convince in completeness, transparency and transportability when compared with “pure” mathematical models.
Highlights
As their environment today is more volatile than ever (Chang, Lai, and Lai 2006; Cinar and Kayakutlu 2010), managing companies has become increasingly complex
The objective of this article is to develop a hybrid process model that combines quantitative information for environmental scanning systems derived from regression analyses and qualitative knowledge from expert interviews
With our to-be-developed hybrid process model we focus on activities to set-up a model that combines quantitative information for environmental scanning systems derived from regression analyses and qualitative knowledge from expert interviews
Summary
As their environment today is more volatile than ever (Chang, Lai, and Lai 2006; Cinar and Kayakutlu 2010), managing companies has become increasingly complex. Mayer (2012) came up with five ways to improve today's environmental scanning systems: (1) design a more comprehensive information model, (2) set. We found no examples of environmental scanning system design that integrates BNs. The objective of this article is to develop a hybrid process model that combines quantitative information for environmental scanning systems derived from regression analyses and qualitative knowledge from expert interviews. The objective of this article is to develop a hybrid process model that combines quantitative information for environmental scanning systems derived from regression analyses and qualitative knowledge from expert interviews For the latter, BNs are applied to elicit and illustrate even complex relationships between business environment indicators (BEIs) and key financials. We provide starting points for future research (sect. 8)
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