Improving Ensemble Forecasting Using Total Least Squares and Lead-Time Dependent Bias Correction

Abstract

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models produce a quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), which is vital for a wide range of applications, especially for accurate flash flood forecasting. The under- and over-estimation of forecast uncertainty pose operational risks and often encourage overly conservative decisions to be made. Since NWP models are subject to many uncertainties, the QPFs need to be post-processed. The NWP biases should be corrected prior to their use as a reliable data source in hydrological models. In recent years, several post-processing techniques have been proposed. However, there is a lack of research on post-processing the real-time forecast of NWP models considering bias lead-time dependency for short- to medium-range forecasts. The main objective of this study is to use the total least squares (TLS) method and the lead-time dependent bias correction method—known as dynamic weighting (DW)—to post-process forecast real-time data. The findings show improved bias scores, a decrease in the normalized error and an improvement in the scatter index (SI). A comparison between the real-time precipitation and flood forecast relative bias error shows that applying the TLS and DW methods reduced the biases of real-time forecast precipitation. The results for real-time flood forecasts for the events of 2002, 2007 and 2011 show error reductions and accuracy improvements of 78.58%, 81.26% and 62.33%, respectively.