Abstract
Reservoir and pumped hydro storage facilities represent one of the best options for providing flexibility at low marginal cost and very low life cycle carbon emissions. However, hydropower generation is subject to physical, environmental and regulatory constraints, which introduce complexity in the modelling of hydropower in the context of transition energy analysis. In this article, a probabilistic model for hydropower generation is developed in order to improve an hourly-resolved tool for transition path analysis presented in previous research. The model is based on time series analysis, which exploits the fact that the different constraints affecting hydropower generation were met in the past. The upgraded version of the transition path analysis tool shows a decrease in the hydropower flexibility as compared with previous published results, providing a better picture of the benefits and drawbacks associated with a specific transition path under analysis, for example in terms of assessing the probability of unserved energy. The upgraded version of the tool was employed to analyse the Spanish National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), finding consistence between proposals associated with the power system and related CO2 reduction and share of renewable electricity targets.
Highlights
The Paris Agreement [1] implies that carbon neutrality can be achieved by 2050.Since energy conversion is mainly responsible for anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, plans for energy transition are being developed worldwide
A probabilistic model for hydropower generation is developed in order to improve an hourly-resolved tool for transition path analysis presented in previous research
The upgraded version of the transition path analysis tool shows a decrease in the hydropower flexibility as compared with previous published results, providing a better picture of the benefits and drawbacks associated with a specific transition path under analysis, for example in terms of assessing the probability of unserved energy
Summary
The Paris Agreement [1] implies that carbon neutrality can be achieved by 2050. Since energy conversion is mainly responsible for anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, plans for energy transition are being developed worldwide. An example of including environmental and regulatory constraints in an hourly-resolved optimal provision of hydropower was described in Reference [8], but the small scale of the considered case study (a single facility of 150 MW) makes this approach rather limited for modelling the aggregated hydropower generation within a whole power system. Assessing the viability of a power system in the context of the energy transition requires detailed simulations in order to account for the variability in the different timescales of solar radiation, wind, rain patterns and electricity demand, among others, together with considering the constraints of the available flexible generation and storage systems. The proposed hydropower statistical model is coupled with the dispatch algorithm for power systems with high renewable energy source (RES) penetration presented in Reference [9], providing an upgraded version of the transition path analysis tool.
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