Improving early-season wheat yield forecasts driven by probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts

Abstract

Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) are evolving rapidly alongside improvements in climate modelling and downscaling research, and have great potential for weather-sensitive sectors, especially agriculture, by reducing weather-related risks and increasing productivity. Skilful yield forecasts at the beginning of, or before, a cropping season can provide farmers and other stakeholders in agribusiness with the necessary information for early planning and actions. Only a few yield forecast studies have a forecast lead time of four months or longer due to the problem complexity. To enable SCFs from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to be used for early-season yield forecasts, this paper uses a statistical downscaling technique, Extended Copula Post-Processing (ECPP) and the Schaake shuffle, to downscale four climate variables to generate weather-like daily data that are suitable for agricultural applications. Climate forecasts drive a process-based crop model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) to simulate crop forecasts on 50 stations, well-distributed across the Australian grain zone. To focus on yield forecast skills attributable to SCF, we propose best practice management rules to predict water-limited winter wheat yield. Yield forecasts from ECPP have a significant improvement over quantile mapping downscaling and raw SCF from the Australian recent seasonal forecast model ACCESS-S1 in terms of bias, accuracy, reliability, and overall forecast skill. In addition, even at the beginning of a cropping season with a forecast lead time of four or more months, yield forecasts driven by ECPP illustrate higher skill than climatology, a benchmark for yield forecast. Early-season yield forecasts driven by SCFs provides a promising alternative to regression/machine-learning-based forecasts. Performance sensitivity and issues, and gaps on using skilful SCFs to help growers with their farming decision-making are discussed.