Abstract
Reliability prediction tools are design aids that assist engineers in selecting the appropriate system design. These tools aid engineers in comparing design alternatives and determining the impact of system parameters on the chosen design approach. This paper discusses the limitations imposed on reliability prediction tools by mathematics and the choices of their developers. A brief list of the limitations and capabilities of three current reliability prediction tools is presented in the paper. The paper also discusses four ways of overcoming reliability prediction tool limitations: selecting complementary tools, improving our understanding of computer system behavior, expanding reliability prediction tool capabilities, and employing a paradigm of reliability prediction tool use.
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