Improvements in antenatal screening for Down's syndrome

Abstract

ObjectivesTo estimate improvements to four antenatal screening tests for Down's syndrome (first trimester Combined, second trimester Quadruple, and first and second trimester Integrated and Serum Integrated tests) based on adding ductus venosus pulsatility index (DVPI), fetal nasal bone examination (NBE) and serum placental growth factor (PlGF).SettingStatistical analysis of data from several sources modelled using the maternal age distribution of live births in England and Wales from 2006 to 2008.MethodsMonte Carlo simulation carried out to estimate the screening performance of tests with the addition of combinations of DVPI, NBE and PlGF.ResultsAt a 95% detection rate (DR), with first trimester markers measured at 11 completed weeks’ gestation, the addition of DVPI, NBE and PlGF decreased the false-positive rate (FPR) of the Combined test from 16.1% to 3.0%, the addition of PlGF to the Quadruple test decreased the FPR from 15.7% to 15.3%, the addition of DVPI, NBE and PlGF to the Integrated test decreased the FPR from 4.1% to 0.6% and the addition of PlGF to the Serum Integrated test decreased the FPR from 15.1% to 11.1%. At a 90% detection rate, the reductions in the FPR were from 6.8% to 0.8%, 7.7% to 7.4%, 1.2% to 0.1% and 6.2% to 4.8%, respectively.ConclusionsThe addition of DVPI, NBE and PlGF to the Combined and Integrated tests significantly improves screening performance, reducing the FPRs by over 80%. The Integrated test with DVPI, NBE and PlGF is significantly better than the Combined test with DVPI, NBE and PlGF.