IMPROVEMENT OF RISK ASSESSMENT BASED ON MODELING THE CONSEQUENCES OF INDUSTRIAL INJURIES

Abstract

The article analyzes the results of theoretical studies and practical approaches to the assessment of professional risks. Despite a significant amount of theoretical work, for effective risk management at workplaces, the main problematic tasks that need to be solved remain the development of practical recommendations for the application of existing methods, approaches, and algorithms. Approaches to the assessment of industrial risks based on the use of statistical data on industrial injuries are analyzed. It was noted that for the practical application of the proposed approach, it is necessary to have updated databases and information systems designed for data processing and visualization of results.A mathematical model of the coefficient of severity of industrial injuries is proposed for practical use, which has the form of dependence of the specified coefficient on a set of influencing factors (cause of the accident, type of event, age and length of service of the victim). To build the model, it is proposed to use the method of regression-correlation analysis. The study of the obtained model made it possible to establish the degree of influence of factors on the possible consequences of accidents. In particular, it was established that the type of event that has the lowest frequency of manifestation (falling, collapsing, collapsing of objects, materials, rock, soil, etc.) has the greatest impact on the number of days of incapacity for work. Taking into account the identified values of the influence of the factors made it possible to form reasonable preventive measures.