Abstract
The results of a study using the methodological apparatus of the theory of fuzzy logic and automation tools for analyzing input data for risk assessment of projects for the implementation of automated information components of organizational and technical systems are presented. Based on the model of logistics projects for motor transport units, the method for assessing the risks of projects implementing automated information components of non-commercial organizational and technical systems has been improved. To do this, let’s analyze the peculiarities of implementing ERP projects as commercial ones and investigate the specifics of the activities of state institutions, when successful tasks, and not economic indicators, lay the foundation for the assessment. It is considered that it is possible to formulate a system of risk assessment indicators for reducing the effectiveness of projects for implementing automated information systems in non-commercial organizational and technical systems. A meaningful interpretation of the fuzzy approach is carried out regarding the formalization of the risk assessment process for projects of automated information systems of public institutions. A tree of fuzzy inference is constructed based on the results of a study of the description of indicators and expert assessments on the risk assessment of the implementation of the project of such an automated information system. The improved method differs from the known ones by the use of hierarchical fuzzy inference, which makes it possible to quantify, reduce the time to evaluate project risks and improve the quality of decisions. An increase in the number of input variables leads to an increase in complexity (an increase in the number of rules) for constructing a fuzzy inference system. The construction of a hierarchical system of fuzzy inference and knowledge bases can reduce complexity (the number of rules). The development of a software module based on the algorithm of the method as part of corporate automated information systems of non-commercial organizational and technical systems will reduce the time for risk assessment of projects for the implementation of automated information systems.
Highlights
IntroductionThe development of the state and society involves solving the issue of improving the quality of tasks by organizational (socio) technical systems (hereinafter referred to as OTS) that are part of them
The development of the state and society involves solving the issue of improving the quality of tasks by organizational technical systems that are part of them
(2020), «EUREKA: Physics and Engineering» Number 1 equacy of this approach is confirmed by other studies in other subject areas when it comes to weak formalization or not the possibility of formalization in general
Summary
The development of the state and society involves solving the issue of improving the quality of tasks by organizational (socio) technical systems (hereinafter referred to as OTS) that are part of them. Existing approaches to risk management in projects, including their assessments, are defined in the following standards: AS/NZS 4360:2004, COSO-ERM, ISO 26500:2012, FERMA, PMBoK, P2M, PRINCE, PSPRM, RMI and the like. They describe risk management approaches in projects related to financial, economic, technical systems, etc., as a rule, in deterministic and stochastic conditions. The management and risk assessment of AIS projects in the activities of such non-commercial (specific) OTS included in state institutions is carried out in conditions of uncertainty. The improvement of the method of risk assessment of AIS projects of non-commercial OTS and the like is an urgent scientific and applied task
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