IMPROVEMENT OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF FIBER-OPTIC LINEAR PATH

Abstract

The article describes the main problem of making a decision about the possibility and effectiveness of the use of fiber-optic communication facilities on communication lines with random parameters. As an example, fiber-optic communication lines of a trusted operator or an adversary are considered. The main reason is indicated, which is the lack of methods that allow predicting the possibility and expediency of using specific fiber-optic communication facilities in given environmental conditions. The necessity of developing and applying a probabilistic mathematical model of a fiber-optic linear path is explained as the basis of the methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of the use of fiber-optic communication means. An analysis of existing mathematical models is given and their shortcomings and imperfections are indicated. A probabilistic mathematical model of the fiber-optic linear path has been developed, which allows calculating the numerical characteristics of the quality indicators of the fiber-optic linear path: Optical Signal-to-Noise-Ratio (OSNR) and Bit Error Ratio (BER), based on the known technical data of the communication means used. The mathematical expectation of a random variable is used as a numerical characteristic, as an idealized average of OSNR and BER. Based on the mathematical expectation, other numerical characteristics are calculated, which are also used when making a decision as a risk measure, and allow us to judge its magnitude and significance. The developed probabilistic mathematical model is proposed as the basis of the efficiency assessment methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of work on communications.