Abstract
BackgroundA recent community-based disease management (CBDM) pilot study reported a 20.5% prevalence of hypertension and a 0.5 and 3.6% prevalence of stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD), respectively, in an elderly population (mean age 65 years) in the Xin Jiang autonomous region of China. The CBDM was initiated in 2013 as an essential public health service; however, the potential long-term impact of CBDM on cardiovascular (CV: CHD and stroke) events is unknown. The objective of the study was to understand the long-term impact of CBDM interventions on CV risk factors using disease-model simulation based on a single-arm experimental study.MethodsA discrete event simulation was developed to evaluate the impact of CBDM on the long-term CV risk among patients with hypertension, in China’s Xin Jiang autonomous region. The model generated pairs of identical patients; one receives CBDM and one does not (control group). Their clinical courses were simulated based on time to CV events (CHD and strokes), which are estimated using published risk equations. The impact of CBDM was incorporated as improvement in systolic blood pressure (SBP) based on observations from the CBDM study. The simulation estimated the number of CV events over patients’ lifetimes.ResultsDuring a 2-year follow up, the CBDM led to an average reduction of 8.73 mmHg in SBP from baseline, and a 42% reduction in smoking. The discrete event simulation showed that, in the control group, the model estimated incidence rates of 276, 1789, and 616 per 100,000 individuals for lifetime CHD, stroke, and CV-related death, respectively. The impact of CBDM on SBP translated into reductions of 8, 28, and 23% in CHD, stroke, and CV-related deaths, respectively. Taking into account CBDM’s reduction of both SBP and smoking, deaths from CHD, stroke, and CV-related deaths were reduced by 12, 30, and 26%, respectively.ConclusionsThe implementation of CBDM in China’s Xinjiang autonomous region is expected to significantly reduce incidences of CHD, strokes, and CV-related deaths.
Highlights
A recent community-based disease management (CBDM) pilot study reported a 20.5% prevalence of hypertension and a 0.5 and 3.6% prevalence of stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD), respectively, in an elderly population in the Xin Jiang autonomous region of China
It is estimated that 270 million Chinese patients are hypertensive and more than half of Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are associated with hypertension in China [1]
Risk factors that could influence the outcome of hypertension control were captured at baseline and at the end of the two-year follow-up, including but not limited to, age, gender, blood pressure (BP), smoking status, diabetes status, and history of CVD
Summary
A recent community-based disease management (CBDM) pilot study reported a 20.5% prevalence of hypertension and a 0.5 and 3.6% prevalence of stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD), respectively, in an elderly population (mean age 65 years) in the Xin Jiang autonomous region of China. The CBDM was initiated in 2013 as an essential public health service; the potential long-term impact of CBDM on cardiovascular (CV: CHD and stroke) events is unknown. The objective of the study was to understand the long-term impact of CBDM interventions on CV risk factors using disease-model simulation based on a single-arm experimental study. Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the leading causes of death for patients in both urban and rural areas of China. 44.6% of deaths in rural areas and 42.5% in urban areas are caused by CVDs. Hypertension is the primary risk factor for stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD). Overestimated blood pressure (BP) control rates may contribute to therapeutic inertia and poor BP control among treated patients with hypertension [2, 3]
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