Abstract
The objective of our study is twofold: on one side, to complement earlier analyses thatestimate the spatial density of livestock holdings using different methods; on the other, to show that by combining different data sources—the 2009/10 Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS) and the 2008 Uganda National Livestock Census (UNLC)—and applying the Small Area Estimation (SAE) technique, it is possible to provide a finer spatial disaggregation and representation of missing livestock measures in the census. First, we combine our livestock population and density figures with those from the UNLC. Second, we fit an estimation model of livestock income and share on the UNPS to generate an out-of-sample prediction of the missing information in the UNLC, mapping livestock income and share at the local level. Our results suggest that the integrated use of multiple data sources, such as household surveys, censuses, and administrative data, together with spatial analysis techniques, such as SAE, can provide reliable, coherent, and location-specific insights to guide policy and investment. This work shows a useful method that allows for a reliable spatial livestock analysis, whenever sectorial databases offer greater coverage of the population of interest, but more limited information than specialized surveys. This method can be applied in all countries where there is a similar livestock information system, and common support between livestock census and household surveys with detailed agricultural/livestock modules. Cross-validation across data sources provides clearer insights into livestock-related policy and a better springboard for effective poverty-reduction strategies.
Highlights
Livestock ownership affects household welfare in a variety of ways, including possible direct effects on household’s nutrition, disposable income, asset diversification, credit constraints, manure, traction power, savings and insurance, collateral for financial services, and consumption smoothing (Ayele and Peacock, 2003; Dore, Adair, and Popkin, 2003; Upton, 2004)
Further exploring the importance of the livestock activities to the livelihoods of Ugandan households, Figure 2 displays the breakdown of income sources by consumption expenditure quintile
12 Livestock income is defined as the value of sales and barter of livestock, plus the value of sales, barter and self-consumption of livestock products minus the expenditures related to livestock production
Summary
Livestock ownership affects household welfare in a variety of ways, including possible direct effects on household’s nutrition, disposable income, asset diversification, credit constraints, manure, traction power, savings and insurance, collateral for financial services, and consumption smoothing (Ayele and Peacock, 2003; Dore, Adair, and Popkin, 2003; Upton, 2004). The role of livestock and livestock products in household income and consumption is becoming increasingly important in developing countries as the level of development improves. The livestock sector is increasingly becoming so important that experts call the phenomenon a “livestock revolution”—a monotonic and sustained increase in livestock consumption—in www.srsa.org/rrs. Because of the relatively small contribution of livestock to household income, agricultural income is usually considered as being comprised mostly by returns from cropmarketing and own consumption. In many agriculture-based economies, where agriculture contributes significantly to economic growth—such as those in sub-Saharan Africa, livestock provides over half of the total agricultural output and over a third of total output across all developing countries (World Bank, 2008; Upton, 2004)
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