Improved probabilistic load flow method based on D‐vine copulas and Latin hypercube sampling in distribution network with multiple wind generators

Abstract

In this study, a D-vine copulas modelling based probabilistic load flow (PLF) computation method is proposed, which considers the dependence among multiple wind generators. Furthermore, this method is not restricted by the type of wind speed distribution, i.e. allow random variables to comply with any types of distribution model. Copula theory plays an important role on dependency modelling. However, when high-dimensional correlation is taken into account, standard multivariate copula suffers from the problems of inflexible structure. Vine copula is flexible to build high-dimensional dependence and able to construct complicated dependence structure by applying bivariate copulas. For marginal distributions of wind speed, non-parametric model can provide a better estimation than those parametric models. An improved Latin hypercube sampling based Monte Carlo simulation method is utilised to solve PLF problems. A modified IEEE 33-node distribution system is used to conduct the numerical experiments for the accuracy and efficiency verification of the proposed PLF method, under the MatlabR2016a platform. The simulation results verify the outstanding accuracy, efficiency and robustness of the proposed PLF method.